Russia may imminently begin state buying of grain - limiting export potential - SovEcon warned, even as the intervention programme was attacked by a leading US wheat industry figure.
The Russian government "is likely to step in earlier than usual to support the market" by buying grains for intervention stocks, said Andrey Sizov Jr, the managing director of SovEcon, the influential consultancy.
The mood music from senior agriculture officials, and the frequency with which they are discussing intervention, appears to indicate a willingness to act soon, Mr Sizov said.
Timely purchases would also be line with the character of Nikolai Fedorov, the Russian agriculture minister, who is "more sympathetic to the interest of crop growers than predecessors", many of whom prioritised the livestock industry, which benefits from low grain prices.
"It looks like he wants to support the interests of crop growers, who would benefit from early price support," Mr Sizov said.
Export implications
Imminent intervention would also "indirectly lower [Russia's] grain export potential", by limiting the amount of supplies available to merchants, Mr Sizov said.
In fact, wheat prices remain high enough in Russia's South, the country's main source of export grain, at some 7,400-7,800 roubles per tonne, to make it unlikely that producers there will sell the intervention fund.
However, in the central and eastern regions, where prices or at or below intervention offers of some 6,300-6,500 roubles per tonne, "producers are likely to sell to the fund", Mr Sizov told Agrimoney.com.
Given Russia's reputation as a fierce competitor on international grain markets, its export potential is closely watched by traders.
'Russians just don't seem to understand'
The comments follow a statement from deputy minister Ilya Shestakov, the Russian deputy agriculture minister, that the government was ready to buy up grain to limit Russian exports to 20m tonnes, although Mr Sizov said that this was based on a misinterpretation of intervention rules, which are based on an intervention price rather than volume.
Nonetheless, the thought of a curb on exports prompted an angry response from Alan Tracy, the president of US Wheat Associates, which promotes American wheat exports, and termed limits on Russian exports "not reasonable and prudent".
"The Russians just don't seem to understand how markets work," Mr Tracy said.
'Time for Russia to be responsible'
"The threat of export curbs and their actuality in Russia twice since 2007-08 encourage private exporters to rush to get as much grain out of the export door as they can before the door closes," with the large supplies depressing prices for farmers in Russia and worldwide.
"Later, when the flow stops, prices become artificially higher for all of our customers but are still depressed for Russian farmers because their export potential is gone.
"Russia is likely to be the world's second largest exporter this year. It is past time for them to be responsible to other market players and to their own producers." Mr Tracy said.
"We hope they will learn to let the market determine prices and move grain supplies to where they are needed."
agrimoney.com